| Title |
Date |
Publication |
Author(s) |
Type |
| Construction Spending
|
July, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Total construction expenditures fell 0.4 percent in May, as public construction expenditures increased 0.4 percent and offset a portion of the 0.7 percent decline in private construction. Since April 2006, when private construction spending began to fall, spending has fallen an average of 0.8 percent per month and is down a total of 18.5 percent. Private residential construction spending continued to fall in May, declining 1.6 percent over the month, slightly better than the −2.2 percent average monthly decline it’s seen since April 2006. Private nonresidential construction rose 0.2 percent in May, its fifth consecutive month of growth and twentieth in the past two years.
The Census Bureau revised the way it calculates the construction expenditures series. Private residential construction spending no longer includes improvements on rental, vacant, or seasonal properties. Improvements on owner occupied homes are still included. The revision, which affects data back to 1993, lowers the level of spending but does not materially affect any of the recent trends.
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| Personal Income
|
June, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Personal income growth increased an annualized 24.8 percent in May, however government stimulus checks were a major reason for the uncharacteristically rapid rate of growth. Still, there was strength outside of the government’s stimulus program. Total employee compensation increased an annualized 3.6 percent following essentially no change in April. Wage and salary income also increased over the month, growing at a 3.7 percent annualized pace, after falling at a 1.0 percent pace in May. On the disposition side of the report, real personal consumption expenditures grew an annualized 4.4 percent in May, no doubt reflecting at least some impact from the stimulus program. Also as a result of stimulus checks, May’s savings rate (personal savings as a percent of disposable personal income) jumped from 0.4 percent to 5.0 percent. The PCE price index increased and annualized 5.0 percent in May reflecting a rapid increase in food and energy prices. Excluding these two categories, core PCE increased at only a 1.4 percent annual rate. The 12–month growth rate for the headline and core PCE now stand at 3.1 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively.
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| Consumer Sentiment
|
June, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 3.4 point to 56.4 in June, down an additional 0.3 points from the preliminary report. The decline brings consumer sentiment to its lowest level since 1980, and its third lowest level since the series began in 1952. The median year–ahead inflation expectation decreased slightly from 5.2% to 5.1%, while the median 5– to 10–year–ahead inflation expectation was unchanged at 3.4%. Both readings are elevated compared to those of recent years.
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| Existing Home Sales
|
June, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Total existing home sales rose 2.0 percent in May after falling 1.0 percent in April. The less–volatile single–family component of existing home sales increased 1.6 percent following April’s 0.5 percent reduction. The increase in existing single–family home sales was the third in the last five months; although the 12–month sales rate is still −14.5 percent, the series is up 2.1 percent for the year to date. Inventories of existing single–family homes for sale fell slightly in terms of both actual units and months of supply on the market, but both measures remain elevated. The median sales price of existing single–family homes sold in May was down 6.9 percent from a year earlier.
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| Real GDP
|
June, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: First–quarter real GDP growth was revised up from 0.9 percent to 1.0 percent with the release of the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s final estimate. The revision, which was widely expected, resulted from an increase in final sales that more than offset a reduction in estimates of inventory growth. Personal consumption expenditures, business investment in equipment and software, and state and local government spending were all revised up, whereas net exports was largely unchanged and inventory investment was revised down. The four–quarter growth rate in core PCE was unchanged at 2.0 percent. Although this was the “final” estimate of first quarter GDP growth, it will be revised next month with the release of the second–quarter advance estimate, as part of the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s benchmarking process, which will affect data going back to 2005.
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| New Home Sales
|
June, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Sales of new single–family home fell 2.5 percent in May following a 4.8 percent rise in April. The 12–month growth rate in sales rebounded slightly to −40.3 percent from a cyclical low of −42.1 percent but remains lower than at any time since 1981. The number of new single–family homes on the market continued to fall in May and is now down 20 percent from its peak. However, sales continued to decline more rapidly than inventories; as a result, the supply of homes for sale (at the current pace) increased to 10.9 months’ worth in May, its second–highest level since 1981. The median sales price of new single–family homes was down 5.7 percent from a year earlier.
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| Durable Goods
|
June, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New orders for durable goods were virtually unchanged in May after April’s 1.0 percent decline. Excluding orders for transportation equipment, which tend to be volatile, durable goods orders fell 0.9 percent. Orders for capital goods increased 1.5 percent, thanks to a 10.9 percent increase in orders for defense capital goods. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, which some believe to be an indicator of business investment, fell 0.8 percent. Shipments of durable goods fell 1.1 percent in April, while shipments excluding transportation were down 0.2 percent.
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| Home Price Indexes
|
June, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The monthly OFHEO and both the 10– and 20–city composite Case–Shiller Home Price indexes fell further in April. The OFHEO index now shows a 4.6 percent 12–month decline in home prices, and both Case–Shiller composite indexes show a much greater decline. According to the 20–city composite, home prices have fallen 15.3 percent over the last 12 months; the 10–city composite shows a decline of 16.3 percent.
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| Consumer Confidence
|
June, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Conference Board’s Index of Consumer Confidence fell 7.7 points in June to 50.4, its lowest level since 1992. Both the present–situation component and the expectations component fell sharply, leaving the expectations component at a historic low and the present situation not far from one. Over the last 12 months, the consumer confidence index has declined 52.1 percent, the sharpest 12–month decline on record, but roughly the rate of decline seen around the 1974, 1980, and 1991 recessions.
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| Where’s the Spillover from Housing?
|
June, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: Recently, the argument has been made that outside of the housing market, the economy is actually doing pretty well. Looking at the GDP numbers, that argument appears to hold some weight. Once you take into account the direct impact of large declines in residential investment, GDP growth looks pretty good over the past two quarters. With homes so important to a household’s financial situation, how is it that a serious downturn in housing can have such a limited effect on the rest of the economy?
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| Exchange–Rate Pass–Through to Import Prices
|
June, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: A dollar depreciation tends to raise the dollar price of all goods and services imported into the United States. But the full amount of the depreciation rarely gets passed through to the dollar prices of imports, and lately the amount of pass-through seems to have declined along with worldwide inflation.
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| Trade Deficit
|
June, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The nominal trade deficit increased $4.4 billion in April, the largest monthly increase in the deficit since 2005. Export growth was strong in April, increasing $5.0 billion, a 3.3 percent gain. Import growth was even stronger however, as nominal imports rose 4.5 percent, a $9.4 billion gain. The increase in imports was widespread, with the largest area of growth in industrial supplies and materials, which increased $5.6 billion in April, a 9.1 percent increase. Imports of consumer goods saw the slowest growth, rising only $0.6 billion , a 1.7 percent increase from March. The large increase in the trade deficit was almost entirely the result of price changes. After taking account of prices, the real trade deficit was virtually unchanged, as imports increased $3.8 billion and exports increased $3.9 billion.
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| S&P/Case-Shiller Housing Price Index
|
May, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The S&P/Case-Shiller Housing Price Index fell a record 6.7 percent in the first quarter of 2008, bringing the four-quarter growth rate down to −14.1 percent, also a record. The four-quarter growth rate has fallen significantly in each of the last 10 quarters and has been negative for five consecutive quarters.
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| New Single-Family Home Sales
|
May, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New single-family home sales increased 3.3 percent in April after falling a downwardly revised 11.0 percent in March. The annualized level of sales—while up from March’s revised level—was actually unchanged from March’s original estimate. On a year-over-year basis, sales hit a new cyclical low of 42.0 percent below last April’s level. The inventory of new single-family homes for sale relative to the current sales pace fell from its recent high of 11.1 months to a still-elevated 10.6 months. In terms of actual homes for sale, inventories fell for the twelfth consecutive month but still remain higher than at any time prior to 2005. The median sales price of new single-family homes sold in April was up 1.5 percent from a year ago, and in March the median sales price was down 14.1 percent from a year ago.
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| Existing Homes Sales
|
May, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data |
| Abstract: Existing single-family home sales fell 0.5 percent in April after a 2.5 percent decline in March. While existing single-family home sales are still down 16.1 percent from a year ago and 31.5 percent from their peak, the pace of decline has slowed in recent months. The three-, six-, and nine-month growth rates are all up from recent lows. Inventories of existing single-family homes for sale increased substantially in April in terms of both numbers of units and months of supply. Inventory levels by both measures are now at their highest levels since the housing downturn began. The median sales price of existing single-family homes sold in April was down 8.5 percent from a year ago.
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| Existing Home Sales
|
May, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Existing single-family home sales fell 0.5 percent in April after a 2.5 percent decline in March. While existing single-family home sales are still down 16.1 percent from a year ago and 31.5 percent from their peak, the pace of decline has slowed in recent months. The three-, six-, and nine-month growth rates are all up from recent lows. Inventories of existing single-family homes for sale increased substantially in April in terms of both numbers of units and months of supply. Inventory levels by both measures are now at their highest levels since the housing downturn began. The median sales price of existing single-family homes sold in April was down 8.5 percent from a year ago.
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| OFHEO Housing Price Index
|
May, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) purchase-only index of home prices declined 1.7 percent in the first quarter, after a 1.4 percent decline in the fourth quarter of 2007. According to the purchase-only index, which does not include price data from refinancing transactions, home prices are now down a record 3.1 percent from a year ago. The OFHEO total house-price index, which includes purchase price data as well as data from refinancings, was virtually unchanged from a year ago, the worst-ever year-over-year performance in that index as well.
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| Housing Starts
|
May, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Single–family housing starts fell 1.7 percent in April to their lowest level since 1991. However, it was the smallest decline in single–family housing starts since June 2007. Also on the positive side, permits for single–family homes rose in April for only the fourth time since the series began its long descent in October 2005. April?s 4.0 percent increase in permits was by far the largest of those gains, although it still leaves the level of permits issued at levels last regularly seen in 1990.
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| Bifurcation?
|
May, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The International Monetary Fund lowered its projections for world economic growth. No surprise there! But the report also suggested that the traditional correlation between growth in advanced-developed countries and growth in developing countries was weakening. Global trade gains and macroeconomic policy improvements have reduced—but not eliminated—the developing countries’ dependency on the developed world. Now that’s interesting!
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| The Employment Situation, April
|
May, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; Beth Mowry; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The April Employment Report came in better than anticipated, with a total loss of just 20,000 nonfarm jobs from payrolls. Revisions to February and March numbers increased the losses in those months by just 8,000. The unemployment rate edged slightly lower, from 5.1 percent to 5.0 percent over the month.
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| Construction Spending
|
May, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Total private construction spending fell 1.7 percent in March, as a 4.6 percent decline in private residential construction was partially offset by a 1.9 percent increase on the nonresidential side. The decline on the residential side was the largest monthly decline since 1981. However, total private construction activity in January and February was revised up a combined 1.4 percent, while the residential and nonresidential sides were revised up 1.6 percent and 1.2 percent respectively.
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| S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
|
April, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: According to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index, home prices fell 2.7 percent in February and are down 12.7 percent from a year ago, a record for the series, which begins in 2000. The 10-city index, which has a longer history, also reached a new historic low, with a 12-month growth rate of -13.6 percent. Moreover, looking at the annualized 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-month growth rates, the pace of decline in both indexes seems to be increasing rather than decreasing.
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| New Home Sales
|
April, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New single-family home sales fell 8.5 percent in March to their lowest level since the 1991 recession. At 526 thousand units annually in March the pace of sales is down 62.1 percent from its peak in July 2005. The inventory of unsold new single-family homes relative to the current sales pace jumped up to 11 months, the third-highest level ever recorded. However, the actual number of homes on the market continued to fall in March and is down 18.3 percent from its peak in July 2006. The median sales price of new single-family homes sold in March fell 13.3 percent from a year ago.
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| Existing Home Sales
|
April, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Existing single-family home sales fell 2.7 percent in March, after increasing a combined 3.5 percent in the previous two months. The growth rate in existing single-family homes, while still negative, has stabilized some of late. The six-month growth rate in sales rose to -2.2 percent in March--up from a low of -17.1 percent in August 2007. The inventory of single-family homes on the market increased slightly over the month, in terms of both units and months of supply, but is still down from its peak levels. The median sales price of existing single-family homes rose slightly in March, but the 12-month growth rate was largely unchanged at -8.3 percent.
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| Housing Starts
|
April, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Total housing starts fell 11.9 percent in March, but the numbers were distorted by a 24.6 percent decline in multi-unit starts. The less volatile, single-family component of housing starts fell 5.7 percent, following a similar decline in February. The pace of decline in single-family starts has not slowed recently. While the 6-month growth rate has been fairly stable at around the −45 to −50 percent range (annualized), the 12-month growth rate reached a new low for the recent downturn of 43.6 percent in March. Permits for single-family homes, another indicator of construction activity, fell 6.2 percent in March and are off 46.4 percent from a year ago.
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| International Trade
|
April, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The nominal trade deficit increased $3.4 billion in February following a $1.1 billion increase in January. Export growth remained strong, increasing 2.0 percent in February to bring the 12-month growth rate in exports up to 20.8 percent, the fastest growth in exports since the series began in 1992. Import growth increased 3.1 percent in February, outpacing even the rapid increase in exports. The major growth on the import side came from consumer goods, automotive goods, and capital goods. Imports of petroleum goods fell 5.4 percent.
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| Should the Fed Prop Up the Buck?
|
April, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: Congress mandates the Federal Reserve “to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates?” Recently, some observers have suggested that the Federal Reserve pay more attention to the dollar, but adding an exchange-rate objective to the existing menu could greatly complicate the Fed’s ability to hit its key domestic objectives. A lot depends on what the reasons behind the dollar’s depreciation are.
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| Construction Spending
|
April, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Total private construction spending fell 0.5 percent in February, after declining in excess of 1.0 percent in three of the previous four months. Private residential construction fell 0.9 percent over the course of the month, its smallest decline since April 2007. The nonresidential side fell for the third consecutive month, albeit a meager 0.1 percent, after increasing in 28 of the previous 29 months.
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| Home Price Indexes
|
March, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract:
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| Housing Starts
|
March, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Total housing starts fell a modest 0.6 percent in February, due in large part to a 14.4 percent increase in multi-unit starts. The less volatile single-family series fell 6.7 percent over the month to a new cyclical low. Permits for single-family homes, another indicator of new housing activity, fell 6.2 percent in February. The multi-unit permits series did not fare as well as its counterpart in starts, falling10.8 percent over the month.
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| International Trade
|
March, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The nominal trade balance was virtually unchanged in January, as a 1.6 percent increase in exports was offset by a 1.3 percent increase in imports, resulting in a very modest $0.3 billion increase in the trade deficit. The increase in imports was led by a 10.6 percent nominal increase in petroleum products. In real terms, petroleum imports still increased 8.8 percent in January, but they were only up 0.4 percent from a year ago. Export growth continued to remain strong in January, as exports increased for the eleventh straight month. At 16.6 percent, the 12-month growth rate in exports is at its highest level since 2004.
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| Are We Importing Inflation?
|
March, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract:
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| New Home Sales
|
February, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New single-family home sales fell 2.8 percent in January to their lowest level since 1995. Since peaking in July 2005, sales have fallen 57.7 percent, and over the most recent 12 months sales have fallen by a third. The inventory of new homes for sale relative to the current sales pace increased to a cyclical high of 9.9 months in January, a level last seen in 1981.
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| OFHEO Home Price Index
|
February, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) Purchase-Only Home Price Index declined for the second consecutive quarter in the fourth quarter of 2007. The index declined 1.3 percent over the quarter, considerably worse than the third quarter’s 0.3 percent decline. The four-quarter growth rate in the index dipped into negative territory for the first time, posting a 0.3 percent decline over the year. The OFHEO total index, which includes refinancings, showed less weakness, increasing 0.1 percent over the quarter and 0.8 percent over the year.
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| S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
|
February, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index declined 5.4 percent in the fourth quarter, after posting smaller declines in each of the previous five quarters. The decline brings the four-quarter growth rate in the index to −8.9 percent, by far the worst growth rate since the series began 20 years ago.
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| Existing Homes Sales
|
February, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Sales of existing single-family homes increased 0.5 percent in January, bringing the three-month growth rate to −2.1 percent, the slowest decline since February 2007. Despite January’s moderate sales increase, the 12-month growth rate in sales declined slightly to −22.4 percent, the lowest since 1989. The inventory of existing single-family homes on the market reversed its course and increased in January, after falling in each of the past three months. At 3.65 million units (up from 3.39 million in December), it currently represents 10.1 months of sales at the current sales pace, which is slightly ahead of December’s equivalent of 9.4 months.
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| Housing Starts
|
February, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Total housing starts were largely unchanged in January after a decline of nearly 15 percent in December. The less volatile, single-family series declined 5.2 percent; its eighth consecutive decline. Single-family starts peaked in January 2006 and since that time have fallen 60 percent, to their lowest level since 1991. Permits for single-family also fell 4.1 percent over the course of January.
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| Import and Export Prices
|
February, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Import prices surged ahead in January, rising 22.9 percent (annualized rate), after a 2.8 percent decrease in December. The jump in prices was driven largely by a 90.6 percent upswing in petroleum prices, which pushed the year-over-year growth rate in import prices up to an all-time high of 13.7 percent. Nonpetroleum imports increased 8.0 percent during the month, mostly due to a 60.6 percent advance in industrial supplies and materials. Export prices spiked up 15.0 percent in January, their highest spike since January 1989. Over the past 12 months, prices for exported goods rose 6.7 percent.
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| International Trade
|
February, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The nominal trade deficit declined $4.4 billion in December, after increasing in each of the previous three months. Over the course of the month, exports increased 1.5 percent, their tenth consecutive monthly increase, while imports fell 1.1 percent. With the final month of 2007 reported, the annual trade deficit stands at $711.6 billion, $46.9 billion less than the 2006 trade deficit and the smallest annual deficit since 2004. The fairly substantial decline in the annual figure marks the first time since 2001 that the trade deficit has fallen.
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| Chinese Inflation and the Renminbi
|
February, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
top |
| Housing Markets
|
January, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Economic Trends |
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| Monetary Policy and the Dollar?s Depreciation
|
January, 2008 |
|
Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
top |
| Housing Starts
|
December, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Single-family housing starts continued to decline in November, dropping 5.4 percent from a downwardly-revised October figure. So far this year, single family housing starts have declined in nine out of eleven months and have fallen by a third to their lowest level since 1991. Permits for single-family homes, which some believe to be a less volatile indicator of the demand for new construction, fell 5.6% in November and are also at their lowest level since 1991.
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| International Trade
|
December, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The trade deficit increased $0.7 billion in October to end the month at $57.8 billion, as a 0.9 percent increase in exports was outpaced by a 1.0 percent increase in imports. Despite two small increases in the trade deficit over the two months, October?s deficit is still down considerably from the peak deficit of $67.6 billion seen in August 2006.
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| Dollar Depreciations and Inflation
|
December, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
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| The Housing Market
|
December, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Economic Trends |
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| Trade and the Dollar
|
December, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
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| House Price Index
|
November, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The OFHEO House Price Index experienced its first quarterly decline since 1994, as it fell 0.4 percent in the third quarter of 2007. The purchase-only index, which excludes refinances but only goes back until 1991, fell 0.5 percent in the third quarter, matching its largest decline on record. On a year-over-year basis, both indexes still show home prices appreciating at a modest 1.8 percent rate in the third quarter. Other measures of home prices show outright price declines from a year ago.
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| Existing Homes Sales
|
November, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Existing single-family home sales were unchanged in October, after falling a total of 25.7 percent over the previous 7 months. Year-to-date sales are down an annualized 24.1 percent, while the median sales price is down an annualized 8.1 percent. The inventory of existing single-family homes increased from 10.1 months to 10.5 months in October, which is more than double the inventory level seen at any point in 2005.
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| The Employment Situation, October
|
November, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Yoonsoo Lee; |
Economic Trends |
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| Housing Cycles
|
November, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Economic Trends |
top |
| Is It the Best of Times or the Worst?
|
November, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
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| Jumbo Mortgages and Mortgage Market Conditions
|
October, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Andrea Pescatori; |
Economic Trends |
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| New Home Sales
|
October, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New single-family home sales increased 4.8 percent in September, after falling 7.9 percent in August. Despite the increase, new single-family home sales remain weak, at levels last seen in 1997. On a year-over-year basis, sales are down 23.3 percent while the median price of a new single-family home has risen 5.0 percent. The inventory of new homes for sale relative to the current sales pace fell somewhat in September, from 9.0 months to 8.3 months, but still remains elevated.
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| Existing Home Sales
|
October, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Existing single-family home sales fell 8.6 percent in September, after falling a combined 18.5 percent over the previous six months. September's decline was the second largest since 1989, the only larger decline having occurred in March 2007. Year to date in 2007, existing single-family home sales have fallen at an annualized rate of 26.2 percent. Sales peaked 24 months ago in September 2005 and have since fallen at an annualized rate of 16.6 percent. However, the current downturn is not the steepest on record; over the 47 month period between June 1978 and May 1982, existing single-family home sales fell at an annualized rate of 18.0 percent. Inventories of existing single-family homes on the market jumped from an already high 9.3 months to 10.2 months, their highest level since 1986.
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| Housing Starts
|
October, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Total housing starts fell 10.2 percent in September, but the numbers were distorted by a 34.3 percent decline in multi-unit starts. Single-family starts, which tend to be less volatile than their multi-unit counterpart, fell a less shocking 1.7 percent over the course of the month. Even so, the decline brings single-family starts down to their lowest level since 1993. Permits for single-family homes, which generally tend to track starts fairly well, fell 7.1 percent in September to their lowest level since 1992.
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| International Trade
|
October, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The nominal trade deficit fell $1.4 billion in August to $57.6 billion, its lowest level since January. Export growth was fairly weak in August, increasing only 0.4 percent. But when combined with a 0.4 percent decline in imports, the total effect on the deficit was fairly significant. Around this time last year the trade deficit fell sharply from its all-time high of $67.6 billion. In the 11 months since, the deficit has held relatively steady around $59.0 billion.
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| The Employment Situation, September
|
October, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Murat Tasci; |
Economic Trends |
top |
| Head'n South
|
October, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
top |
| Who Cares about the Housing Market?
|
October, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Economic Trends |
top |
| Labor Turnover
|
October, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Murat Tasci; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract:
|
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| Exisiting Home Sales
|
September, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Existing single-family home sales continued their descent in August, falling 3.8 percent over the course of the month to their lowest level since 2002. August’s decline was the sixth consecutive monthly decline and brings sales down an annualized 18.2 percent on the year. Over the past six months sales have fallen at an annualized pace of 33.1 percent; that is the steepest rate of decline over any six-month period since 1989. Inventories of existing single-family homes increased over the month from 9.2 months to 9.8 months, their highest level since 1989 and considerably above the average of 5.4 months seen over the past five years.
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| New Home Sales
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September, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Weakness in the market for new homes continued, as new single-family home sales fell 8.3 percent in August, more than reversing July?s 3.8 percent increase. The decline brought sales down to a new low for this housing cycle, to a level last seen in 2000. Sales growth varied tremendously by region with the Northeast and Midwest posting substantial gains, while the South and West posted even larger (in nominal terms) declines. The 3-, 6- and 12-month growth rates in sales on the national level all remained significantly negative in August, but all were above recent lows, implying that the rate of decline in sales may be slowing. Inventories of new single-family homes increased from 7.6 months to 8.2 months, just below their recent peak.
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| Housing Starts
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September, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Single-family housing starts fell 7.1 percent in August after falling 7.3 percent in July. The consecutive months of steep declines brought the series down to its lowest level since 1993. In the 21 months since peaking, single-family housing starts have fallen at a 29.2 percent annualized pace. So far in 2007, housing starts are on pace to decline 29.0 percent. Adding to the negative outlook, permits for single-family homes, which are considered by some to be a leading indicator for future homebuilding, fell 8.1 percent in August. The decline in permits was the largest since 1995 and brought the number of permits issued to its lowest level since 1995 as well.
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| Current Account
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September, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The current account deficit declined $6.3 billion to 5.5 percent of GDP in the second quarter, down from 5.7 percent of GDP in the first quarter, to its lowest level relative to GDP since the third quarter of 2005.
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| The Employment Situation, August
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September, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Yoonsoo Lee; |
Economic Trends |
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| Revisions to the Employment Report
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September, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Yoonsoo Lee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract:
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| International Trade
|
September, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The nominal trade deficit fell $183 million to $59.2 billion in July, as exports increased a relatively large 2.7 percent and imports increased 1.8 percent. Over the past 10 months the trade deficit has held fairly steady at just over $59 billion, down considerably from the peak deficit of $67.6 billion seen in August 2006.
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| U.S. International Investment Position
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September, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
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| Housing Markets
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September, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Economic Trends |
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| Existing Home Sales
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August, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Existing single-family home sales continued to decline in July, falling a more modest 0.4 percent during the course of the month compared with June, when sales fell 3.3 percent. Over the past 22 months, with the exception of relatively large back-to-back gains in January and February, existing single-family home sales have fallen steadily, resulting in an annualized growth rate of ?11.8 percent over the period. Over the same period, the median sales price has fluctuated somewhat between around $230 thousand and $210 thousand but on average has remained relatively flat. Months of inventory increased to a recent peak of 9.2 months, more than double the 4.4 month average inventory level seen in 2005.
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| New Home Sales
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August, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New single-family home sales rose 2.8 percent in July, as a healthy increase in the West boosted the national number. Despite July’s increase the 3-, 6- and 12-month growth rates in sales remain negative. New single-family home sales peaked 24 months ago, in July 2005, and have since fallen at an annualized rate of 20.9 percent. Over the first 12 months of this period, sales fell 30.2 percent, compared to a more modest, yet still substantial, 10.2 percent decline over the most recent 12-month period. Currently, sales are at a level last seen regularly during and just prior to the 2001 recession.
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| Housing Starts
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August, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Single-family housing starts fell 7.3 percent in July, their lowest level in over 10 years, while permits for single-family homes fell 1.6 percent, their lowest level in more than 12 years. Single-family starts peaked in January 2006 before proceeding to fall 32.4 percent over the rest of the year. Year-to-date in 2007 housing starts are off a slightly more modest 13.8 percent.
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| The Dollar’s Depreciation and Inflation
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August, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
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| New Home Sales
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July, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New single–family home sales fell 6.6% in June after falling 2.2% in May. Combined May and June’s declines have negated almost all of April’s large, 10.0% gain and bring the current sales pace down 40.0% from its historical peak. Inventories of new single–family homes, as measured by the current sales pace, increased slightly in June but remain just under the recent high seen in March.
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| Existing Home Sales
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July, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: As reported by the National Association of Realtors, existing single–family–home sales fell 3.8 percent in June, following May’s 0.5 percent decline. June’s decline brings the series down to its lowest level since late 2002 and 20.2 percent below its peak in September 2005. The median sales price of existing single–family homes increased 3.3 percent (to $230,100), the fifth consecutive monthly increase.
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| Housing Starts
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July, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Total housing starts increased 2.3 percent in June, while single–family starts were effectively unchanged. Single–family starts are currently down 37.3 percent from their peak in January 2006 but have stabilized somewhat in recent months. Over the past five months, single–family starts have increased 2.5 percent. Permits for single–family homes, which some claim to be an indicator of future construction activity, fell 4.1 percent in June and have shown no real signs of stabilizing. Since peaking in September 2005, permits have steadily fallen 43.3 percent.
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| Sovereign Wealth Funds
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July, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
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| Existing Single–Family Home Sales
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June, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Existing single–family home sales fell 8.9 percent in May (annualized rate) after falling a combined 20.6 percent (annualized rate) over the previous two months. Since peaking in September 2005, existing single–family home sales have fallen in 13 out of 20 months and is down just over 17 percent. Over the same period, the median sales price of existing single–family homes has fallen 2.7 percent.
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| Nominal Trade Deficit
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June, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The nominal trade deficit decreased $3.9 billion in April after increasing a combined $5.6 billion in February and March. Export growth was weak, increasing a modest 2.3 percent (annualized), while imports dropped 20.6 percent. The decline in imports was led by a $1.5 billion decline in consumer goods and a $1.0 billion decline in auto–related imports. Imports of petroleum–related products were largely unchanged. Since reaching record highs last summer, the trade deficit has fallen steadily and is currently down about $9.0 billion.
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| Housing
|
June, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Ed Nosal; |
Economic Trends |
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| Is Foreign Exchange Intervention a Good Idea?
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June, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
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| OFHEO
|
June, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: According to the OFHEO House Price Index, home price appreciation slowed to its lowest quarterly growth rate in over a decade, slipping from 5.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006 to 1.8 percent in the first quarter of 2007. On a year–over–year basis, the rate of growth declined for a fifth straight quarter: Home prices are currently just 4.3 percent higher than year–ago levels.
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| New Home Sales
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May, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New single–family–home sales increased 16.2 percent (nonannualized) in April, after falling in each of the previous three months. The increase, which was the largest monthly gain since 1993, was led primarily by the South, where new single–family–home sales increased 28.8 percent. Since peaking in July 2005, new single–family–home sales have fallen steadily: Even with April?s unusually large increase, the series is still down nearly 30 percent from its peak.
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| Existing Home Sales
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May, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Existing single–family–home sales fell 2.4 percent in April, following March?s 9.0 percent decline. April's decline brings the series down to its lowest level since early 2003 and 17.1 percent below its peak in September 2005. The median sales price of existing single–family homes increased 2.0 percent (to $220,500), the third consecutive monthly increase.
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| International Trade
|
May, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The nominal trade deficit increased $6.0 billion to $63.9 billion in March, as a 1.8 percent increase in exports was more than offset by a 4.5 percent increase in imports, the largest monthly rise since late 2002. Imports of goods, which generally account for about 85 percent of overall imports, jumped 5.1 percent during the month. Of that gain, roughly half can be attributed to imports of petroleum products, which rose 17.6 percent in March.
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| Do Workers Benefit from Globalization?
|
May, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
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| New Home Sales
|
April, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New home sales increased by 2.6 percent in March after having declined 18 percent since the beginning of this year. The sales pace has fallen steadily since mid-2005 and is currently 37.2 percent below the last peak seen in the series, in July 2005. The median sales price of new homes increased 0.9 percent in March, its fifth increase in the past six months. On a year–over–year basis, prices are up 6.4 percent, despite sales being down 23.5 percent. The months’ supply of unsold new homes at the current sales pace fell slightly from its recent peak of 8.1 months, to 7.8 months.
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| New Home Sales
|
April, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New home sales increased by 2.6 percent in March after having declined 18 percent since the beginning of this year. The sales pace has fallen steadily since mid-2005 and is currently 37.2 percent below the last peak seen in the series, in July 2005. The median sales price of new homes increased 0.9 percent in March, its fifth increase in the past six months. On a year-over-year basis, prices are up 6.4 percent, despite sales being down 23.5 percent. The months? supply of unsold new homes at the current sales pace fell slightly from its recent peak of 8.1 months, to 7.8 months.
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| Existing Home Sales
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April, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Existing single-family home sales fell 9.5 percent in March, the largest decline in this series in nearly 20 years. The decline more than offset the steady gains seen in the previous two months and brings the annualized sales pace down to 5.32 million units, its lowest level since mid 2003 (and 15.6 percent below its peak in September 2005). The National Association of Realtors attributed the abnormally large decline in sales to unseasonably cold weather in February, as well as restrained subprime lending.
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| Existing Home Sales
|
April, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Existing single–family home sales fell 9.5 percent in March, the largest decline in this series in nearly 20 years. The decline more than offset the steady gains seen in the previous two months and brings the annualized sales pace down to 5.32 million units, its lowest level since mid 2003 (and 15.6 percent below its peak in September 2005). The National Association of Realtors attributed the abnormally large decline in sales to unseasonably cold weather in February, as well as restrained subprime lending.
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| Housing Starts
|
April, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Single–family housing starts rose 2.0 percent (nonannualized rate) in March, following a 6.7 percent increase in February. Prior to this release, single–family housing starts had not increased for two consecutive months since July 2005. Despite the recent rebound, housing starts remain about 33 percent below their peak of 1.814 million units, reached in January 2006, and are similar to levels seen in the mid–1990s.
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| Industrial Production
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April, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Industrial production fell 0.2 percent in March, following a 0.8 percent increase in February. The decline reflected a 7.0 percent plunge in utilities production, which partially offset February's 7.6 percent jump. The Federal Reserve Board attributed this variation to swings in temperature from below-seasonal norms in February to above-seasonal norms in March. Meanwhile, manufacturing production posted a strong 0.7 percent increase, reflecting broad-based gains across manufacturing industries. Capacity utilization in the manufacturing sector posted its first increase of the year, rebounding to 80.1, after falling in five of the six previous months.
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| Business Investment
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April, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Ed Nosal; |
Economic Trends |
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| Deficits and the Dollar
|
March, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
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| Asian Reserves
|
March, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
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| Existing Home Sales
|
March, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Existing single-family home sales rose 3.7 percent in February after a 3.1 percent increase in January. The increase brought the annual sales pace up to 5.88 million, exactly halfway between the peak sales pace, seen in September 2005, and the trough, seen in September 2006. On a year-over-year basis, sales are still off 3.4 percent, and the median sales price is down 1.5 percent. Nonetheless, sales have increased in four of the past five months, and prices in two of the past three.
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| New Home Sales
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March, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New home sales continued to decline in February, falling 3.9 percent during the month, following a 15.8 percent decline in January. The recent declines bring new home sales down 38.0 percent from their peak in July 2005 and to their lowest level since 2000. The months' supply of new homes on the market jumped for the second straight month: At 8.1 months, inventory is nearly double its 10-year average.
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| International Trade
|
March, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The nominal trade deficit fell $2.3 billion to $59.1 billion in January, as exports increased a moderate 1.1 percent and imports fell 0.5 percent. Despite a decline in crude oil prices, petroleum imports increased 5.4 percent, partially offsetting a 1.8 percent decline in all other imports. The trade deficit has now fallen in four of the last five months and is nearly $10 billion lower that its August 2006 peak of $68.9 billion.
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| A Tale of Two Houses
|
March, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Ed Nosal; |
Economic Trends |
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| OFHEO House Price Index
|
March, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The OFHEO House Price Index increased at a 4.5 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2006, following a 4.2 percent rise in the third quarter of 2006. On a year-over-year basis, the rate of growth in home prices continued to decline for the fourth consecutive month: Home prices are now 5.9 percent higher than year-ago levels.
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| Will the Euro Supplant the Dollar?
|
February, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
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| Existing Home Sales
|
February, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Existing single–family home sales increased 3.5 percent in January—the largest increase for the series in nearly three years. However, sales are down 9.7 percent from their peak in September 2005. Existing single–family home sales, which have been down from year–ago levels in 13 out of the last 14 months, declined 4.2 percent on a year–over–year basis in January. Median single–family home prices fell 5.3 percent during the month—the largest monthly decline in the series, which began in 1968—and are down 3.5 percent from a year–ago levels.
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| Import Prices
|
February, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Import prices fell about 14 percent (annualized rate) in January, reflecting a 60 percent decline in petroleum import prices. Nonpetroleum import prices were unchanged in January and up 1.6 percent on a year–over–year basis. Consumer goods import prices, excluding autos, were up a strong 3.6 percent in January, and the 12–month growth rate for these imports continues to rise, reaching 1.5 percent in January.
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| Is Manufacturing Going the Way of Agriculture?
|
February, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Ed Nosal; |
Economic Trends |
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| Trade Deficit
|
February, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The trade deficit increased $3.1 billion to $61.2 billion in December as moderate export growth was outweighed by strong import growth. Almost half of the month's gain in total imports was due to a rise in petroleum imports, which increased $1.6 billion or 7.6 percent during the month, reflecting an increase in the price of oil. Despite the trade deficit gain in December, the quarterly trade deficit is at its lowest level since 2005:Q2.
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| China s Economy
|
February, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
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| New Homes Sales
|
January, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New home sales grew 4.8 percent in December to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.12 million units. Sales in the Northeast and Midwest were strong, while sales in the South were virtually unchanged, and sales in the West were down a bit. Nonetheless, new home sales are up 14.4 percent from their recent trough in July 2006, yet still down 18.1 percent from their peak in July 2005. The median sales price of new homes rose 0.5 percent to $234,390 in December but is still down 1.5 percent from a year ago.
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| Industrial Production Closes 2006 in Fine Form
|
January, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Ed Nosal; |
Economic Trends |
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| Some Say Housing Numbers Encouraging
|
January, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Ed Nosal; |
Economic Trends |
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| December Housing Starts
|
January, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Total housing starts increased 4.5 percent in December, as multifamily–unit starts increased 30.6 percent. Single–family starts fell 4.1 percent over the month, taking back a little of November's 8.0 percent gain. On a year–over–year basis, single–family starts are down nearly 25 percent. Housing permits increased 5.5 percent in December, and single–family permits increased 1.2 percent. Both increases were the first increases seen in the series since January.
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| Industrial Production
|
January, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Total industrial production significantly exceeded forecasts, rising 0.4 percent in December following three consecutive months of decline. Production in the manufacturing sector rebounded after also falling for the previous three months.Mining production was robust, while utility production fell, no doubt reflecting unseasonably warm weather in December. Durable goods manufacturing production was especially strong last month, with large gains in motor vehicles and parts, and in computer and electronic product production.
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| Current Account Sustainability
|
January, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
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| Durable Goods Orders and Personal Income and Consumption Reports
|
January, 2007 |
|
Michael Shenk; Ed Nosal; |
Economic Trends |
top |
| Housing Markets
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|
Michael Shenk; |
Economic Trends |
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