Economic Research and Data
Features
- What is the Yield Curve Teeling Us?
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- Since last month, the yield curve has taken a parallel upward shift, with both short-term and long-term interest rates rising. The yield curve slope became slightly flatter, with both long and short rates moving down. Projecting forward using past values of the spread and GDP growth suggests that real GDP will grow at about a 3.0 percent rate over the next year—on the high side of other forecasts.
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- Differences in Educational Attainment across States
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- The relationship between economic growth and human capital is well established in economics. Looking at Fourth District states, Kentucky and Pennsylvania have above-average growth in the share of the population with both four-year and advanced degrees, while Ohio had below-average growth in both categories. West Virginia had a higher-than-average growth rate in four-year degrees, but the state remains the lowest ranked of the 50 states, with only 1 in 6 adults over 25 having earned a four-year college degree.
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- The Employment Report
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- The district’s unemployment rate jumped 0.6 percent, to 6.1 percent, for the month of May. Compared to the national rate, the district’s unemployment rate stood 0.6 percent higher in May and has been consistently higher since early 2004. Since the same time last year, the Fourth District unemployment rate has increased 0.7 percentage point. The national rate has increased 1.0 percentage point.
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