Inflation Research from the Cleveland Fed
Cleveland Fed Estimates of Inflation Expectations
- Monthly releases of data and analysis : Find the latest on inflation expectations, the real interest rate, and the inflation risk premium based on the Cleveland Fed model.
- A New Approach to Gauging Inflation Expectations: This Economic Commentary explains the mechanics of the model in easy-to-understand language and gives an overview of the estimates it produces and some ideas about how to interpret them.
- Inflation: Noise, Risk, and Expectations: This Economic Commentary explains the advantages of the Cleveland Fed's estimates of inflation expectations over commonly used measures.
- Estimating Real and Nominal Term Structures (PDF): This working paper contains the technical background on the model.
Median Consumer Price Index and the 16% Trimmed-Mean Consumer Price Index
- The Inflation Trend: The Cleveland Fed's estimates of the basic inflation trend. It is updated monthly and compared to other inflation measures.
- Revised Methodology: Describes the adjustments made to correct for potential distortions caused by the relative size of the Owner's Equivalent Rent component.
- All about the core inflation and trimmed-mean inflation measures.
- The Consumer Price Index as a Measure of Inflation (PDF): An Economic Review article describing methodology for constructing the CPI and investigating its accuracy.
- Efficient Inflation Estimation (PDF): A working paper describing the trimmed-mean methodology.
- Median Price Changes (PDF): An Economic Commentary describing an alternative approach to measuring current monetary inflation .
- The Seasonality of Consumer Prices (PDF). Economic Review.
- Measuring Core Inflation (PDF): Working paper.
U.S. Inflation Indicators
- Data and charts on all the major inflation indicators: including current and historical data. Data can be downloaded, and charts can be modified. (Updated monthly).
- Charts and downloadable data on CPI inflation from 200 countries (obtained from the ILO): Current and historical data. (Updated quarterly).
- Aggregates for various regions in the world and classes of economies (e.g., "emerging," "developed," etc.).
Other Inflation-Related Publications
- Do Commodity Prices Signal Inflation? Economic Commentary.
- Demographic Differences in Inflation Expectations: What Do They Really Mean? Economic Commentary.
- Simple Ways to Forecast Inflation: What Works Best? Economic Commentary.
- Are Some Prices in the CPI More Forward Looking than Others? We Think So. Economic Commentary. About sticky price CPI.
- Rising Relative Prices or Inflation: Why Knowing the Difference Matters. Economic Commentary.
- Do Energy Price Spikes Cause Inflation? Economic Commentary.
- Do Energy-Price Shocks Affect Core-Price Measures? Economic Commentary.
- Is It More Expensive, or Does It Just Cost More Money? (PDF): An Economic Commentary on cost of living versus inflation.
- On the Origin and Evolution of the Word Inflation (PDF): An Economic Commentary explaining how the word inflation has come to be used by the general public (and many economists) for any price increase.
- Bad Standards (PDF): An Economic Commentary on how money is a measure of value and how important it is to keep the measure static over time (like an "inch").
- Comparing Inflation Expectations of Households and Economists (PDF): Economic Review.
- May 11, 2011: Perspectives on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy. Speech at Xavier University in Cincinnati, Ohio.
- April 7, 2011: Current Issues in U.S. Monetary Policy. Speech at a Global Interdependence Center conference in Rome, Italy.
- March 31, 2011: Economic Outlook, Oil Prices, and Monetary Policy. Speech to the Pittsburgh Chapter of the Association for Corporate Growth.