Inflation Research from the Cleveland Fed

Cleveland Fed Estimates of Inflation Expectations

Monthly releases of data and analysis : Find the latest on inflation expectations, the real interest rate, and the inflation risk premium based on the Cleveland Fed model.

A New Approach to Gauging Inflation Expectations: This Economic Commentary explains the mechanics of the model in easy-to-understand language and gives an overview of the estimates it produces and some ideas about how to interpret them.
Inflation: Noise, Risk, and Expectations: This Economic Commentary explains the advantages of the Cleveland Fed's estimates of inflation expectations over commonly used measures.
Estimating Real and Nominal Term Structures (PDF): This working paper contains the technical background on the model.

The Inflation Trend: The Cleveland Fed's estimates of the basic inflation trend. It is updated monthly and compared to other inflation measures.

Revised Methodology: Describes the adjustments made to correct for potential distortions caused by the relative size of the Owner's Equivalent Rent component.
All about the core inflation and trimmed-mean inflation measures.
The Consumer Price Index as a Measure of Inflation (PDF): An Economic Review article describing methodology for constructing the CPI and investigating its accuracy.
Efficient Inflation Estimation (PDF): A working paper describing the trimmed-mean methodology.
Median Price Changes (PDF): An Economic Commentary describing an alternative approach to measuring current monetary inflation .
The Seasonality of Consumer Prices (PDF). Economic Review.
Measuring Core Inflation (PDF): Working paper.

Data and charts on all the major inflation indicators: including current and historical data. Data can be downloaded, and charts can be modified. (Updated monthly).

Charts and downloadable data on CPI inflation from 200 countries (obtained from the ILO): Current and historical data. (Updated quarterly).
Aggregates for various regions in the world and classes of economies (e.g., "emerging," "developed," etc.).

Do Commodity Prices Signal Inflation? Economic Commentary.
Demographic Differences in Inflation Expectations: What Do They Really Mean? Economic Commentary.
Simple Ways to Forecast Inflation: What Works Best? Economic Commentary.
Are Some Prices in the CPI More Forward Looking than Others? We Think So. Economic Commentary. About sticky price CPI.
Rising Relative Prices or Inflation: Why Knowing the Difference Matters. Economic Commentary.
Do Energy Price Spikes Cause Inflation? Economic Commentary.
Do Energy-Price Shocks Affect Core-Price Measures? Economic Commentary.
Is It More Expensive, or Does It Just Cost More Money? (PDF): An Economic Commentary on cost of living versus inflation.
On the Origin and Evolution of the Word Inflation (PDF): An Economic Commentary explaining how the word inflation has come to be used by the general public (and many economists) for any price increase.
Bad Standards (PDF): An Economic Commentary on how money is a measure of value and how important it is to keep the measure static over time (like an "inch").
Comparing Inflation Expectations of Households and Economists (PDF): Economic Review.

May 11, 2011: Perspectives on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy. Speech at Xavier University in Cincinnati, Ohio.
April 7, 2011: Current Issues in U.S. Monetary Policy. Speech at a Global Interdependence Center conference in Rome, Italy.
March 31, 2011: Economic Outlook, Oil Prices, and Monetary Policy. Speech to the Pittsburgh Chapter of the Association for Corporate Growth.