Inflation nowcasts now available from Cleveland Fed; May 30 inflation conference to be livestreamed

Inflation nowcasts for the CPI and PCE are now available from the Cleveland Fed

Nowcasts are estimates or forecasts of inflation in a given month or quarter – before the official CPI or PCE inflation data are released. Nowcasts can help to give a sense of where inflation is today and where it is likely to be in the future.

The Cleveland Fed generates nowcasts of monthly and current-quarter inflation for the CPI, core CPI, PCE, and core PCE. The nowcasts are updated each business day by 10 am ET. The nowcasts are produced by combining nowcasts and forecasts of core inflation, food price inflation, and gasoline price inflation.

Using historical comparisons from 1999 to 2013, Knotek and Zaman say nowcasts for CPI inflation from the Cleveland Fed’s model tend to be more accurate than the consensus (average) nowcasts from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey. The nowcasts for CPI and PCE inflation also tend to be more accurate than the median nowcasts from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters. Using publicly available data, the researchers found that the nowcasts have also tended to be similar to those in the Greenbook, an analysis of economic conditions produced by the Federal Reserve Board. Greenbook nowcasts, which generally are highly accurate, are released to the public with a five-year lag, while the Cleveland Fed nowcasts are available in real time.

Find the nowcasts, interactive charts, FAQs, and other information on Inflation Central, the Bank’s website for all things inflation.

Join us online on May 30: Inflation, Monetary Policy, and the Public conference, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

View our live webcast on Friday, May 30, 2014, as policymakers, academics, and business leaders address the public’s top-of-mind questions related to inflation measurement, the outlook for inflation, and the key determinants of business pricing.

Speakers and panelists include:

You can find the May 30 schedule of events that will be livestreamed here.

News media who are interested in attending the conference in person should contact June Gates at 216/579-2048 or june.a.gates@clev.frb.org. Information about Day 1 (and Day 2) of the conference can be found here.