News from the Fed

  • Price measures continue to show progress toward the Fed’s inflation target, say Cleveland Fed researchers
  • How close is the Federal Reserve to its longer-run inflation target of 2 percent? The answer depends on which inflation measure you look at, say Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Vice President Todd Clark and Senior Research Analyst William Bednar. Read more
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  • Using an alternate measure of trend inflation in Phillips curve forecasting models eliminates "missing disinflation," says Cleveland Fed researcher
  • Some inflation-forecasting models based on the Phillips curve suggest that there should have been more disinflation since the Great Recession than has actually occurred. Read more
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  • Cleveland Fed study highlights growing importance of multi-establishment businesses to job creation
  • The rate at which Americans start new businesses has declined significantly over the past three decades, raising concerns about the state of entrepreneurship in the US and the important role that new companies play in job creation. Read more
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  • Cleveland Fed Estimates of Expected Inflation
  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland reports that its latest estimate of 10-year expected inflation is 1.89 percent. In other words, the public currently expects the inflation rate to be less than 2 percent on average over the next decade. Read more
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  • Median CPI
  • Credit Easing
  • CFSI
  • Inflation Expectations
  • Inflation Nowcasting

Median Consumer Price Index

A more accurate measure of the underlying inflation trend. 

Median Consumer Price Index

Credit Easing Policy Tools

Compare the amounts of different assets on the Federal Reserve balance sheet, from T-bills to mortgage-backed securities. 

Median Consumer Price Index

Cleveland Financial Stress Index
 
08/29: -0.942

0.147 decrease
over the past seven days   

Chart.

Estimates of Inflation Expectations

Estimates of inflation expectations, the real interest rate, and the inflation risk premium. 

Median Consumer Price Index

Inflation Nowcasting

Forecasts of today's inflation rates in the CPI and the PCE price index. 

 

  Quarterly annualized percent change  
Nowcast quarter CPI Core CPI PCE Core PCE Updated
2014:Q31.731.71.51.509/02/2014

Latest Economic Research

  • The Importance of Trend Inflation in the Search for Missing Disinflation 
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  • Some inflation-forecasting models based on the Phillips curve suggest that there should have been more disinflation since the Great Recession than has shown up in core PCE or core CPI data. One way researchers have found to make the disinflation disappear is to remove the long-term unemployed from the overall unemployment measure that is typically used in the models. This analysis shows that the disinflation arises in such models because of the way they account for the long-term trend in inflation. Under a different measurement of trend inflation, which historical forecast accuracy suggests should be preferable, the recent path of inflation can be reasonably well explained by an inflation-forecasting model that incorporates the overall unemployment rate. Read more  (PDF)  
  • Evaluating Progress Toward the Fed’s Inflation Target 
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  • Since January 2012, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has explicitly stated an inflation target of 2 percent. Since that time, most measures of inflation have been running persistently below that target. While in recent months some inflation indicators have made progress in moving back toward 2 percent, determining just how close we are to the FOMC’s target depends on which inflation measure we look at. Read more  
  • The Shifting Source of New Business Establishments and New Jobs 
  • , and Scott Shane 
  • As markets and business patterns change, new business establishments are created to serve them. Those new establishments can be provided by entrepreneurs creating new firms or by the owners of existing businesses opening new locations. We show that over the past three decades, new establishments have increasingly been provided by existing businesses opening new locations. Those new locations have created jobs at a higher rate than brand-new firms, which helps to boost job creation. Looking at both forms of new establishments shows that job creation is down following the recession, but new locations were growing entering the recession and should be a critical component of job creation as the economy continues to recover. Read more  (PDF)  
  • On the Relationships between Wages, Prices, and Economic Activity 
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  • We take a closer look at the connections between wages, prices, and economic activity. We find that causal relationships between wages and prices are difficult to identify, and the ability of wages to help predict future inflation is limited. Wages appear to be useful in assessing the current state of labor markets, but they are not necessarily sufficient for thinking about where the economy and inflation are going. Read more  (PDF)  

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